More Dollar Shortage

ZeroHedge has this post showing the effects of the Fed pumping about $12 Billion to rescue Europe, and to a lesser extent, Japan.

Keep in mind the Fed drained $10 Billion, but now has added back $12 Billion. How is that supposed to work?

Perhaps this is an end-of-year thing.  We’ll see.  I suspect a few Trillion in overseas profits will be heading back to the USA pretty soon.

Climate Hoax

Minnesota has set a record low for a particular date, Dec. 26.  Statistically this is POSSIBLE under the global warming hoax, but highly IMPROBABLE.  But it gets worse.

The all-time record low for Minnesota was set in 1996.  An ALL TIME record low is IMPOSSIBLE under the global warming hoax theory.  You can figure out why, but I’ll give you some hints.  First it happens when the ground is snow covered to block heat from the earth.  Second it happens at night due to radiative cooling.  Third, it occurs during low dew points when the air is bone dry and there is no water vapor present (a green house gas).  In 1996 the concentration of CO2 was close to 400 ppm, which is where it is at today.

The conclusion is that CO2 at 400 ppm. is not an important factor for temperature.

Overseas Dollar Shortage

This chart shows the cost to get US dollars in Japan. The chart for Europe is similar.

 

 

We are seeing the impact of lower US Corporate tax rates plus the zero tax for bringing back overseas profits home to the US.  The takeaway is that Japanese and Euro banks will be under a lot of stress.  Zerohedge points out that this could cause problems with selling US Treasuries.  I don’t think so.  In fact I think this will lower long rates.  Strong dollar plus high relative rates equals demand.

NOTE:  IF my analysis is wrong and long rates spike, the solution is simple, and basic economics.  Balance the budget, which reduces the supply of new Treasuries, i.e., act like adults.

Free Market

Do you want an example of a free market success?  The internet.  Barriers to entry are pathetically low, and the regulatory environment is tiny, at best call it min-archist.  So what has been the result?

It’s probably a trillion dollar industry.  Look at the total revolution in media and retail shopping.  When you consider the disadvantage of individual shipping vs. the modern distribution of places like Walmart, it is amazing to see the success of online retail.

Consider the media and the 2016 election.  In the free market of the online world, previously unknown media firms, down to a guy streaming with his I-phone, displaced the legacy media and got Donald Trump elected.  That is the power of the Free Market.

Now imagine if we eliminated fascism and socialism from our economy and this type of innovation and freedom, where the bulk of regulation is handled by one question: Am I exchanging value for value?,  was the norm.  Imagine the economic prosperity of such a place.  Think about the enormous price we pay to allow parasites, looters, and sociopathic power grabbers to exist in their current state.

The internet as we know it is marked for elimination by the power hungry nutcases.  We see it with social media.  They are acting now via fascism to shutdown the alt-media, with some benefit for 2018, though the prize is the 2020 election.  Alt-tech is providing alternatives, so support alt-tech.

The One Percent

I’ve always had a problem with the 1% designation of Occupy.  It lumps myself in with a drunken wino or a welfare queen.  That’s a problem.  It also lumps together someone like Harold Hamm, who industrialized shale production with some Wallstreet scum bag.  This designation is Marxist clap trap.

Instead the proper designation is maker/taker or producer/parasite.  So as a producer, I would be in the same bucket as Harold Hamm, and the welfare queen would be in the same bucket as George Soros.

Makes a lot more sense.

Prime Mover

I’ve been interested in the concept of God the Prime Mover, and have just started to give it more thought.

There are two Greek dilemmas that led to the discovery of the immaterial world in a formal way.  These were opposite problems:

  1.  It is impossible for things to stay the same.
  2. It is impossible for things to move.

Now the first “problem” is not germane to the present discussion.  And note, both led to Aristotelian Metaphysics.  Let’s continue with the second problem.

For the Thomists out there, it is important to put away Metaphysics.  I know Metaphysics solves the problem with Cause/Effect and Act/Potential.  Wrap all of that up and bury it.  I’m talking about the material world.

From a scientific/material perspective, the problem that it is impossible for things to move has not been solved.  Let’s do a though experiment.

You observe me watching a video.  I hit pause and you come over to look at the screen.  On the screen are two spheres in space, and nothing else.  My video player is high tech/3-D which allows you to pan from different angles, zoom in, and zoom out to thoroughly analyze the paused frame.

Question: what will be the position of the spheres in the next frame?  From every observation imaginable, the answer is unknown.  Again from a purely physical perspective it appears that movement is impossible.  Why should the spheres “move”?  It also appears that the movement of the spheres is dependent upon immaterial information, which brings us back to metaphysics, i.e. Cause and Effect.  The bigger sphere is moving right because it is True that the bigger sphere is moving right.  A tautology, but tautologies can generate interesting ideas.

In a somewhat related case, I am fascinated by the Absurdist School, which is a school of philosophy that the heathens have.  It states that your existence and basically everything “true” is an absurdity.  Think about the precision of the so called cosmological constant that is required in order for the Universe to exist.  I agree, without the premise of God heathens MUST conclude that existence is absurd.

These are my initial musings of the Prime Mover.

Podcast Ep. 31: Tolerance

A discussion on Tolerance, Diversity, and Inclusion.

Download Link:  http://traffic.libsyn.com/catholicsubsidiarity/Ep_31_Tolerance.mp3

Lads, if you want to follow the advise in the podcast, review the EEOC field manual that their agents use in investigating a complaint.  When filing a complaint, make sure that you make it easy for the EEOC agent to rule in your favor.  Remember, he will go through this manual, so tee it up for him.  So if you go to diversity training and are asked to describe how homosexuals would benefit your workplace, you would state: “As a Catholic, my sincerely held religious belief is that homosexual acts are always gravely evil.  Therefore that is my answer.  Furthermore, answering this question provides no business purpose, especially since I am an accountant that enters invoices in the computer.  Furthermore allowing me to skip this question clearly is a de minimus cost.”  Here’s their manual:  https://www.eeoc.gov/policy/docs/religion.html

Headwinds

We have had a nice run due to Trump.  There are three things going on:

  1. Repeal of a lot of regulations via executive order.
  2. Confidence among the producers.
  3. Accommodative Fed.

There are limits to this.  The big problem is Obamacare, which caps weekly manhours to 29.  Trump MIGHT be able to chip away at it, but he needs congress.  This applies to a lot of regulations.  Second is our high taxes, especially on business.  These need to be cut.  They can be cut, and the shortfall made up by borrowing, or we can get taxcuts coupled with drastic cuts to the Leviathan State.  You know which one it will be, if we get any taxcut.

The Fed is supposedly tightening.  It now looks like we’ll get another 0.25% hike in December.  Curiously I have looked for stories about the Fed starting to roll-off the debt they own, and haven’t found any.

Going forward, as long as rates stay low, a decent tax cut should give us a boost.  This continues until China starts cutting back on the free money they send us via their bond purchases.