First, as a Catholic I am 100% satisfied. We got Gorsuch, and there may be 1 to 2 additional conservative Supreme Court Justices coming. Mission accomplished.
That being said, on economics Trump will likely fail. Only his reputation as an expert negotiator keeps me from being conclusive. Who knows, he may be following an impressive playbook with a focus on the long game. I’ll go through a few of the topics:
1. We have a $20 TRILLION debt. If interest rates across duration rise to an average of 5%, fully a third of our budget would be consumed. We are running a large deficit with interest rates probably less than 1.5%. It appears that Trump’s solution is to grow our way out of the debt. Now pro-growth measures are a vital part in fixing things, however spending needs to be reduced. We will see what happens after the budget gets approved. Trump is an expert negotiator and I fully expect him to shut down the government, but we’ll see what the final numbers look like. Furthermore Trump has given up on the border tax. Note he was going to trade a border tax for a reduction of corporate income taxes. At worst this was economically neutral. More likely this would have been economically beneficial as it would have fostered capital formation and capital appreciation, otherwise known as building manufacturing plants. He’s given up on that.
2. Medical costs are outrageous. 50 years ago the doctor came to your house, literally. It was called a house call. He lived in an upper middle class neighborhood and drove a nice car. Today 5 minutes of his time will cost you $150, and he drives a Porsche. His main house is over a million and he has a condo in the Caymans. Trump needs to bust up medical monopolies, doing things like licensing EMTs, Army medics, and RN’s as physicians. Medical costs are the number one problem, destroying such things as Medicare, Medicaid, and pension medical plans. I’ll do a podcast on this topic, but another resource is Karl Denninger over at The Market Ticker.
3. Social Security is already bankrupt. To balance the ponzi scheme out we would have to cut benefits today to around $0.78 on the dollar. It will only get worse and Trump won’t touch this with a 10 foot pole.
4. Regulation Reduction. I give him a lot more credit on this, but I’m not convinced. He can do a lot as the administrator, but he needs Congress to get real reform, and I don’t see it happening. Give him credit on Keystone and DAPL, as well as putting Pruitt in at EPA. However there are rumblings Ivanka is keeping him from acting on shutting down the Climate Change scam.
5. Obamacare. I’m not sure on this. At first I thought he was ambushing Paul Ryan with Ryan Care, but after he attacked the Freedom Caucus, it looks like my hope was misplaced. I expect some kind of reform to come out –as the Republicans know it would be political suicide to fail here, however now my opinion is that this anchor around business won’t be eliminated, just lightened to some degree. This is a big deal because Odumbocare is probably the biggest problem businesses are facing.
6. Drain the Swamp. This is the biggest disappointment. I’ll tell you when I first knew it was over. It was when the press started calling him a liar and even called Kelly Ann Conway a liar to her face. Now the number one rule of leadership is to take care of your men. Sure getting called a liar is bad, but when your men are attacked (in this case a woman), you have to lay the hammer down. Besides some verbal jousting, he did nothing. How about this instead: “CNN called Kelly Ann a liar. They are out of here for 1 week, no interviews, no press room access. After a week, they can apologize or they can be permanently banned. That is their choice.” Same with the fake news stories.
And it gets worse. Why is Comey still in the FBI? Firing him was easy. Why is Anthony Weiner still walking free? John Podesta? Hillary Clinton? Susan Rice? Evelyn Farkis? The list is endless. Again, maybe Trump is following a playbook, but my fear is that Trump has discovered that the Republicans have about the same skeletons in their closet as the Dems. So I’m not very hopeful.
Now Trump is infinitely better than Hillary, but at best we’ll get a minor improvement, again with the cavaet Trump is not playing some sort of 3D chess, and then its back to our old ways. One bit of hope is that the Democrats are destroying themselves. Their party is becoming hard left and has declared war on white people and successful working blacks. I’ll leave you with a bit of hope: Who got Trump elected? Look at the numbers and the answer is black men.