Headwinds

We have had a nice run due to Trump.  There are three things going on:

  1. Repeal of a lot of regulations via executive order.
  2. Confidence among the producers.
  3. Accommodative Fed.

There are limits to this.  The big problem is Obamacare, which caps weekly manhours to 29.  Trump MIGHT be able to chip away at it, but he needs congress.  This applies to a lot of regulations.  Second is our high taxes, especially on business.  These need to be cut.  They can be cut, and the shortfall made up by borrowing, or we can get taxcuts coupled with drastic cuts to the Leviathan State.  You know which one it will be, if we get any taxcut.

The Fed is supposedly tightening.  It now looks like we’ll get another 0.25% hike in December.  Curiously I have looked for stories about the Fed starting to roll-off the debt they own, and haven’t found any.

Going forward, as long as rates stay low, a decent tax cut should give us a boost.  This continues until China starts cutting back on the free money they send us via their bond purchases.

White

Consider “White”.  It is a qualia like other “colors”, and shares the same essence.  It materially does not exist.  It is immaterial.

However White differs from other qualia in an important way.  White does not even have a message transfer component, which IS material, i.e. photons at call it 350 THz transmits the information “Red” (though this is just a guess, as my “Red” might be your “Green”).

However White does not have this.  We “see” white when a full spectrum of photons strikes our cones.  The cones do not have the resolution to separate out the various photons, and so the impulse of all of the frequencies sent through the optic nerve is perceived as “White”.  However in the material world there is NO frequency that corresponds to “White”.  Think about it until you get it.  Not only is White qua White immaterial, there is nothing in the material world that corresponds to transmitting “White”.

The proof is easy.  Shine red light at a whiteboard, and you will see a red board.  Another proof is the prism, which reveals the “White” is a mirage, in fact there is a full spectrum of frequencies present.

The significance of this is in the existence theorem.  Note there is no existence theorem for qualia.  However you could START an existence theorem for most qualia, however you eventually reach a dead end.  So an existence theorem for “Red” would START with observing that 350 THz photons corresponds with Red.  You can’t even START an existence theorem with “White”.

The immaterial world exists, and that is a fatal error for atheism.

Saudi

A history of the Terror War in Syria:  In 2006 Hezbollah beat Israel in a war.  The End.

The Syrian Terror War was a mistake of epic proportions.  Relations with Assad thawed out after 9-11.  We should have used Russia and negotiated a defunding of aid to Hezbollah.  Instead we launched the Terror War.  Assad/Russia has won with the result that Hezbollah has gained offensive capabilities/experience, and Assad is now deeply beholden  to Iran.  This is the mess Trump inherited from Obama.  On top of that Trump has the traitor Kushner on his team.

Here’s what’s going on.  The US has cut a deal with Saliman.  He gets power in SA and will one day be king.  In exchange he is going after Hezbollah in Lebanon.  I don’t expect it to stop there, Iran is now in play.  Saliman is a good friend of Kushner and he is now allied with Israel.

The stick was Las Vegas.  Paddock was not the shooter.  He was a money launderer.  Paddock didn’t make money playing video poker, as that is impossible over the long run.  Paddock lost money but declared on his IRS 1040 he made money.  Paddock was into arms dealing or drugs, probably the former.

Saliman is part owner of Mandalay.  I would not be surprised if there is moslem terrorist material planted in the shooter’s nest.  Or maybe it is legit.  Either way, Saliman and Saudi Arabia would get crushed if word of this got out.  So Saliman went with the program.

 

Manafort

Consider this an intro to offshore banking.

First question, what are the reasons to have an (illegal) offshore set up?

  1. The main reason, 80% of the 80/20, is to eliminate paperwork, reporting, and exposure.  Yes, with an offshore set up you are LESS likely to run into legal problems.  The other huge advantage is the time savings (as well as monetary) when you reduce compliance requirements to zero.  Even if you could afford the army of lawyers and accountants to fill out the 100’s of forms, you would still be peppered daily by them as they tried to comply.  Set up an offshore business and banking, and all of that disappears.
  2. To delay the payment of taxes.  If Manafort made $10MM, then he was able to keep $5MM extra in his account, which he could invest.  That was $250K yearly additional income from investment returns.  If he was really good at investing, it would be a whole lot more.
  3. To bring in petty cash by using an ATM card.  This is nickel and dime type activity for a millionaire.
  4. To buy overseas properties to enjoy, like condos and boats.  Somewhat risky.

Note that you don’t do this to escape taxes.  There is a cardinal rule.  Except for what you can get away with with a debit card, any money that comes into the US, you immediately declare as income and pay taxes on it.

From reading the indictment, Manafort used offshore accounts to pay for houses and luxuries.  This was utterly stupid.  He’s nailed on tax evasion since he didn’t declare it as income.  What he should have done was not been greedy and created a contract with his offshore company, then invoiced against that contract for “consulting”.  Then the offshore company pays you, and you declare it as income.  The IRS isn’t going to notice since they are getting paid.

The people who did it right were the Clintons, though they had a level of complexity that is only possible for high rollers and violent drug king pins.  Here’s a typical example of how it went down:

  1. The Clinton Foundation gets a bribe.
  2. The Clinton Foundation wires $400K to their friends at “Feed Uganda” located in Kampala, outside of US jurisdiction.
  3. “Feed Uganda” hires “Goldman Sachs Consulting Panama” for $300K for “consulting”.  Discovering that would be next to impossible.
  4. Goldman Sachs New York pays Bill $250K for a 15 minutes speech.  Bill reports it as income.

 

So Manafort was an idiot.  Or maybe he had assurances from Obama that the FinCen investigation would be buried, but unfortunately for him he got caught up in the Mueller investigation.  The indictment looks legit and Manafort looks like a crook.  However why the heck was Mueller investigating a tax case?  He should have turned it over to the IRS.

As for me, I look at the big picture.   Let us say Manafort made $10MM.  He would have had to fork over $5MM in taxes.  So I understand WHY he tried to get away with paying no taxes.  It was resentment due to the unjust society we have.  Will Manafort get $5MM in service for that payment?  No, he’ll get 1/350MM th of a chunk of defense and 1/350MMth of a chunk of national parks if he ever even visits them.  Highways he pays for with gas tax (which is just).  No, 99% of the loot will be redistributed, which is theft.  So I understand the resentment.

Final thing to remember, if you ever set up offshore, remember the golden rule.  If money comes into a US bank, declare it as income.

 

Butter

From Zero Hedge:

According to Bloomberg, global butter prices have almost tripled to 7,000 euros ($8,144) a ton from 2,500 euros in 2016, according to Agritel, an Paris-based farming consultancy. In Europe, prices peaked at about 6,500 euros a ton in September, the highest since the European Commission began collecting such data in 2000…The problem can be traced to the end of (EU) milk-production quotas in April 2015 that led to a glut early last year in Europe, and a drastic drop in prices. This prompted production cuts by spring this year.

“The butter shortage in French supermarkets is the direct consequence of the 2016 milk crisis which prompted a 3 percent drop in production,” Xavier Hollandtsni , a Kedge Business School strategy teacher and an expert on agricultural matters, said in a note Thursday……..

“Global demand started to pick up, with China starting to buy again after having stopped for a few months to tap into its stocks, leading to a substantial rise in milk and butter prices,” Begoc said. French retailers have not adapted to the new market reality and have kept a cap on prices, Roquefeuil said. For French dairy companies, it’s easier to export to countries such as Germany,

 

This is known as the calculation problem. The EU and China were “deciding” the appropriate butter supply and price, and now the world markets are screwed up. France is short of butter. With these prices, expect a butter glut in another 6 months.

This is why communism, socialism, fascism, and distributism CAN’T work.

10 yr Action

Interesting action in the 10 yr treasury.  Fed selling may be showing an impact, though they have only sold $10 Billion.  The yield has increased to 2.4%.

Revisiting my theme, the long bond interest rate should head higher as the Fed sells.  This should show up also as a reduction in the excess reserves held on the Fed.  As liquidity is drained, I’d expect the Fed to have to purchase short term instruments to maintain the Fed Funds Rate at their target of 1.25%.

Some expected impacts will be a higher dollar, bearish gold, higher mortgage rates, and a slow down of the economy.

I find it hard to believe this small sale by the Fed is directly responsible, though the market could be front running, i.e. they take the Fed seriously and are selling bonds (raising interest rates) ahead of the Fed.

Chart action shows rates are heading higher.  Yields violated a declining trend line, came back and retested the old trend line, then moved higher.

Burke Update

My original story on Burke was incorrect.  Burke did NOT sign the letter denouncing the heresies of Bergoglio.  The most prominent signature so far is Bishop Fellay of the SSPX.

And it gets worse.  In a brilliant move, Bergoglio has reappointed Cardinal Burke as the Prefect of the Apostolic Signatura.  This will be viewed as an endorsement of Bergoglio by his main antagonist.  Clearly the accusations of heresy has the Vatican worried.

Pray for Cardinal Burke that he will ignore all threats and pressures he faces, so that he will do the right thing.  As of now Catholics hold the heretical view that they can divorce and remarry, due to the teachings of Bergoglio.  These are grave times.

Alt Tech

The Left had great tactics in the past, using Gramsci’s March through the Institutions to the Frankfurt School’s Critical Theory to capture popular culture.  Then came the internet and the Left missed the boat.  The Right captured Twitter and Youtube, and the rest is history — Donald Trump had the biggest upset in political history.

Now the Left is evil, in fact diabolical, but they are not stupid.  It was obvious that they needed to shut down the Right on the internet, and that has begun.  It has only just begun, and it will intensify.  They will do what they can for 2018, but the prize is 2020.  By then Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter will be completely closed off.

Therefore the time is NOW to migrate to Alt Tech and build it up.  Below is a list of alternatives that you should utilize:

Operating System:  Easy.  Migrate to Linux if at all possible.  Search “LInux Mint”.  It is open source so what is under the hood is exposed to the internet.  Linux doesn’t “call home to momma” to report on you.

Wikipedia:  There was a hard fork done called Infogalactic.com.  Right now it is a bit slower than Wikipedia (though it is tolerable), however within six months they will deploy a better wiki-engine that will be faster than Wikipedia.  Start using it.  Get your kids to use it for school.

Google:  DuckDuckGo.com is the alternative.  It’s a decent search engine that doesn’t track you.

Browser:  I had been using Opera, but it has been bought out by the Chinese.  I am now back on Firefox.  Other alternatives are Pale Moon and Brave.   Firefox has one great advantage: plug ins that mess with Google and big tech.  If you go the Firefox route, install “Ad Nauseum” and “TrackMeNot”.  Ad Nauseum hides ads from you, but it also clicks on all ads and rat holes any responses and cookies.  This overloads the big brother database on you and also destroys the online ad business.  It is going to be a big problem as it grows in popularity, and it is growing.  Note it has a feature not to mess with ads that comply with EFF privacy guidelines.  You can enable that if you want (I have).

TrackMeNot uses a random engine to flood google with random searches.  Again it overloads the big brother database with search requests so that your real searches become meaningless (especially if you use duckduckgo).  A brilliant solution.

Twitter:  For now it is Gab.  Note Gab made a poor decision not to moderate, so people have been exposed to slander.  This may eventually sink Gab.  For now if you enjoy Twitter, Gab is a good alternative.

Youtube:  BitChute is a distributed video sharing platform very similar to Youtube.  It can’t be censored.  If you like browsing Youtube, start spending some time on BitChute to build it up.  It also does not have ads.  Another alternative is DTube.  To post to it you need a Steem account (discussed below), but anyone can watch videos.  Again, due to the architecture, it can’t be censored by leftists.  There are plans to evolve DTube into a stand-alone platform.

Facebook:  Minds.com is the alternative to Facebook.  Create an account and give it a try.

Blogging:  Blogger/Blogspot are run by Google.  The alternative is WordPress, which you run independently on many hosting sites.  There are less feature-rich alternatives which are easy to use.  First is Medium.com, which is attracting a strong user base.  Minds.com is oftentimes used for blogging.  An interesting one is Steemit.  Steemit uses blockchain technology to make censorship impossible.  It also has a crypto currency system called Steem.  When you post, you earn Steem, and when you vote/recommend other articles, you spend Steem.  Steem is a real crypto, and can be traded on crytocurrency exchanges.  The price is a little over $1.  It is an interesting way to support bloggers.  As mentioned previously, the video sharing element is called DTube.

Reddit:  The alternative is called Voat.  You can also check out 4chan and 8chan, though they are more primitive.

News:  Try news.infogalactic.com for the top headlines.  Also check out Breitbart and InfoWars.

Catholic:  If you are tired of watered-down Catholic sites, try sucipedomine.com and onepeterfive.com.

Email:  protonmail.com is a good alternative to gmail.

Smartphones:  The best (but not great) alternative is blackberry.  Karl Denninger has written about some hacks to keep Android from spying on you.  If you are tech-savvy, you can try that also.

Publishing:  Castalia House (search “Castalia House” on Amazon) has a no SJW/ No Political Correctness policy and has many great books.  For young reader, even books you read to your little kids, I recommend John C. Wright’s Moth and Cobweb series.  He is Catholic. For Teens, there is a new Western series by Peter Grant.  Start with “Brings the Lightning”.  For teens, CTRL-ALT-Revolt is SciFi that is an incredible book.  He comes up with an idea that is brilliant.  For adults, try some Owen Stanley.  His “Missionaries” will make you die of laughter.  You can imagine if an SJW college professor read this book Zhe would die of a heart attack.

Patreon:  Patreon is marginal right now.  If you want to support the Right, start browsing Freestartr.com.  You should also use it to support your projects.

Do your part.  The left is evil, but not stupid.  We need everyday people to start using alt-tech before 2020 comes.