{"id":53,"date":"2017-04-25T11:42:38","date_gmt":"2017-04-25T16:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/?p=53"},"modified":"2017-04-25T11:45:57","modified_gmt":"2017-04-25T16:45:57","slug":"why-trump-will-likely-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/why-trump-will-likely-fail\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Trump Will Likely Fail"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, as a Catholic I am 100% satisfied. We got Gorsuch, and there may be 1 to 2 additional conservative Supreme Court Justices coming. Mission accomplished.<\/p>\n

That being said, on economics Trump will likely fail. Only his reputation as an expert negotiator keeps me from being conclusive. Who knows, he may be following an impressive playbook with a focus on the long game. I’ll go through a few of the topics:<\/p>\n

1. We have a $20 TRILLION debt. If interest rates across duration rise to an average of 5%, fully a third of our budget would be consumed. We are running a large deficit with interest rates probably less than 1.5%. It appears that Trump’s solution is to grow our way out of the debt. Now pro-growth measures are a vital part in fixing things, however spending needs to be reduced. We will see what happens after the budget gets approved. Trump is an expert negotiator and I fully expect him to shut down the government, but we’ll see what the final numbers look like. Furthermore Trump has given up on the border tax. Note he was going to trade a border tax for a reduction of corporate income taxes. At worst this was economically neutral. More likely this would have been economically beneficial as it would have fostered capital formation and capital appreciation, otherwise known as building manufacturing plants. He’s given up on that.<\/p>\n

2. Medical costs are outrageous. 50 years ago the doctor came to your house, literally. It was called a house call. He lived in an upper middle class neighborhood and drove a nice car. Today 5 minutes of his time will cost you $150, and he drives a Porsche. His main house is over a million and he has a condo in the Caymans. Trump needs to bust up medical monopolies, doing things like licensing EMTs, Army medics, and RN’s as physicians. Medical costs are the number one problem, destroying such things as Medicare, Medicaid, and pension medical plans. I’ll do a podcast on this topic, but another resource is Karl Denninger over at The Market Ticker<\/a>.<\/p>\n

3. \u00a0Social Security is already bankrupt. \u00a0To balance the ponzi scheme out we would have to cut benefits today to around $0.78 on the dollar. \u00a0It will only get worse and Trump won’t touch this with a 10 foot pole.<\/p>\n

4. \u00a0Regulation Reduction. \u00a0I give him a lot more credit on this, but I’m not convinced. \u00a0He can do a lot as the administrator, but he needs Congress to get real reform, and I don’t see it happening. \u00a0Give him credit on Keystone and DAPL, as well as putting Pruitt in at EPA. \u00a0However there are rumblings Ivanka is keeping him from acting on shutting down the Climate Change scam.<\/p>\n

5. \u00a0Obamacare. \u00a0I’m not sure on this. \u00a0At first I thought he was ambushing Paul Ryan with Ryan Care, but after he attacked the Freedom Caucus, it looks like my hope was misplaced. \u00a0I expect some kind of reform to come out\u00a0–as the Republicans know it would be political suicide to fail here, however now my opinion is that this anchor around business won’t be eliminated, just lightened to some degree. \u00a0This is a big deal because Odumbocare is probably the biggest problem businesses are facing.<\/p>\n

6. \u00a0Drain the Swamp. \u00a0This is the biggest disappointment. \u00a0 I’ll tell you when I first knew it was over. \u00a0It was when the press started calling him a liar and even called Kelly Ann Conway a liar to her face. \u00a0Now the number one rule of leadership is to take care of your men. \u00a0Sure getting called a liar is bad, but when your men are attacked (in this case a woman), you have to lay the hammer down. \u00a0Besides some verbal jousting, he did nothing. \u00a0How about this instead: “CNN called Kelly Ann a liar. \u00a0They are out of here for 1 week, no interviews, no press room access. \u00a0After a week, they can apologize or they can be permanently banned. \u00a0That is their choice.” \u00a0Same with the fake news stories.<\/p>\n

And it gets worse. \u00a0Why is Comey still in the FBI? \u00a0Firing him was easy. \u00a0Why is Anthony Weiner still walking free? \u00a0John Podesta? \u00a0Hillary Clinton? \u00a0Susan Rice? \u00a0Evelyn Farkis? \u00a0The list is endless. \u00a0Again, maybe Trump is following a playbook, but my fear is that Trump has discovered that the Republicans have about the same skeletons in their closet as the Dems. \u00a0So I’m not very hopeful.<\/p>\n

Now Trump is infinitely better than Hillary, but at best we’ll get a minor improvement, again with the cavaet Trump is not playing some sort of 3D chess, and then its back to our old ways. \u00a0One bit of hope is that the Democrats are destroying themselves. \u00a0Their party is becoming hard left and has declared war on white people and successful working blacks. \u00a0I’ll leave you with a bit of hope: Who got Trump elected? \u00a0Look at the numbers and the answer is black men.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"