I imagine some of the men out there will be buying me some Shiner Bock. \u00a0Those are the guys who sold half of their stocks a month ago and picked up some 2% T-Bills. \u00a0When the market went crazy, they were thinking: Man, I’m buying that dude some beer.<\/p>\n

So what happened? \u00a0 It is possible that the Fed action is kicking in, but I really think it is too early. \u00a0Excess reserves and monetary base really haven’t dropped. \u00a0The only thing I can find is that M2 growth has slowed, but it is still growing.<\/p>\n

I suspect that it is due to political uncertainty. \u00a0Some people believe it was a warning shot fired at Trump as he tightens the noose on the former Obama officials. \u00a0I can’t exclude that, but generally I tend to look for more reasonable explanations.<\/p>\n

Going forward, on the plus side we have the Trump deregulation (huge), Trump energy production increase, lower tax rates for business, overseas money coming home, and higher wages. \u00a0These are big.<\/p>\n

On the downside we have the debt blowing out again and the Fed tightening. \u00a0Always keep this saying in the back of your head: “Don’t fight the Fed”.<\/p>\n

Short term I think we get a snap back rally (underway) and I think economic expansion, so forced to call it, I think the market is still ok. \u00a0However this means higher inflation (due to all the excess reserves the Fed built up to bail out Obama), and thus higher interest rates. \u00a0The Fed hikes should start to bite by Summer, but that’s a SWAG.<\/p>\n

Those of you who didn’t sell half, stayed up all night, and pissed your pants, don’t forget how bad that felt. \u00a0Use this snap-back rally to sell half and move to safe money: T-bills (I like 6 mo) and FDIC insured funds in your 401(K). \u00a0Look, if you can’t do that, then sell 25% or even 10%. \u00a0Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. \u00a0If I’m wrong, and I very well could be, then half your money participates in the next bull market, and the other half is safely making 2% and higher as the Fed hikes. \u00a0If I’m right, you sleep at night while your friends slit their wrists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I imagine some of the men out there will be buying me some Shiner Bock. \u00a0Those are the guys who sold half of their stocks a month ago and picked up some 2% T-Bills. \u00a0When the market went crazy, they were thinking: Man, I’m buying that dude some beer. So what happened? \u00a0 It is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"libsyn-item-id":0,"libsyn-show-id":0,"libsyn-post-error":"","libsyn-post-error_post-type":"","libsyn-post-error_post-permissions":"","libsyn-post-error_api":"","playlist-podcast-url":"","libsyn-episode-thumbnail":"","libsyn-episode-widescreen_image":"","libsyn-episode-blog_image":"","libsyn-episode-background_image":"","libsyn-post-episode-category-selection":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_use_thumbnail":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_use_theme":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_height":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_width":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_placement":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_use_download_link":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_use_download_link_text":"","libsyn-post-episode-player_custom_color":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-explicit":"","libsyn-post-episode":"","libsyn-post-episode-update-id3":"","libsyn-post-episode-release-date":"","libsyn-post-episode-simple-download":"","libsyn-release-date":"","libsyn-post-update-release-date":"","libsyn-is_draft":"","libsyn-new-media-media":"","libsyn-post-episode-subtitle":"","libsyn-new-media-image":"","libsyn-post-episode-keywords":"","libsyn-post-itunes":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-episode-number":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-season-number":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-episode-type":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-episode-title":"","libsyn-post-episode-itunes-episode-author":"","libsyn-destination-releases":"","libsyn-post-episode-advanced-destination-form-data":"","libsyn-post-episode-advanced-destination-form-data-enabled":"","libsyn-post-episode-advanced-destination-form-data-input-enabled":false,"libsyn-post-episode-premium_state":"","libsyn-episode-shortcode":"","libsyn-episode-embedurl":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,21,8],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=535"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":536,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535\/revisions\/536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jamesdeprisco.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}